Damaddar, that seems to be a calculation for the odds of individual rolls. Horse track is very different from a 32k random. The odds for each horse to win are different. The odds for each roll are identical. Because everyone has equal odds of rolling any number between 0 and 32000, the odds can be reduced to a simple win or lose odd divided by the total people competing. if 14 roll, the odds of wining are 1/14 and odds of losing are 13/14. If someone beats a 31999 with a 32000 roll, it is not impressive in the same sense as a horse track since everyone rolling 32k has the same odds. A horse on the other hand would be an impressive win if it has lower odds of wining than the horse it competes with.
That said the concept of totaling all the odds is what I need a formula for. Because I am comparing wins over loses, rather than just the value of a win or of wins compared to other wins, I don't think the horse track idea can apply.
Hot Dice!
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zorais
- Posts: 89
- Joined: Wed Sep 30, 2009 2:47 pm
- Location: oregon
Re: Hot Dice!
Ok, these results look right to me, but I'm no mathematician, so I'll explain my formula:
p1((1-1/(W1))+(1-1/(W2)...) - ((1-1/(L1))+(1-1/(L2))...)...
What this does is calculate the odds against the win (W) or the lose (L), add the W and the L together for each player (p), then subtract the W from the L to find the odds against the results. In short, how lucky everyone was. Consider this example. One person rolls a 6 sided die and gets a 3. The odds against getting a 3 are (5/6). The 5 numbers this person didn't get are 1,2,4,5,6. The odds against not getting each of those numbers is individually (1/6). If the odds against the wining number (5/6) are subtracted from the odds against not getting each losing number (5*1/6), the result will be 0. In this way, when considered on the scale of almost 20,000 log entries for 32k rolls, the odds for each roll should be able to be summed for each name associated with the rolls.
In other measurments the values were only relative to other players. In this measurment, the values are relative to their distance from 0. So someone who has 10 has good luck and has beaten the odds so far. Someone who has -10 has bad luck (notice the negative).
Edit: I removed this list of Luck values.
p1((1-1/(W1))+(1-1/(W2)...) - ((1-1/(L1))+(1-1/(L2))...)...
What this does is calculate the odds against the win (W) or the lose (L), add the W and the L together for each player (p), then subtract the W from the L to find the odds against the results. In short, how lucky everyone was. Consider this example. One person rolls a 6 sided die and gets a 3. The odds against getting a 3 are (5/6). The 5 numbers this person didn't get are 1,2,4,5,6. The odds against not getting each of those numbers is individually (1/6). If the odds against the wining number (5/6) are subtracted from the odds against not getting each losing number (5*1/6), the result will be 0. In this way, when considered on the scale of almost 20,000 log entries for 32k rolls, the odds for each roll should be able to be summed for each name associated with the rolls.
In other measurments the values were only relative to other players. In this measurment, the values are relative to their distance from 0. So someone who has 10 has good luck and has beaten the odds so far. Someone who has -10 has bad luck (notice the negative).
Edit: I removed this list of Luck values.
Last edited by zorais on Sat Apr 09, 2011 4:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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zorais
- Posts: 89
- Joined: Wed Sep 30, 2009 2:47 pm
- Location: oregon
Re: Hot Dice!
The "Luck value" measurement is subject to the total counted rolls. If I have a small number of rolls to calculate, the value can be very unstable. You can consider this concept to be beginners luck. As time carries on, and I have more rolls to calculate, the luck value will gradually approach 0. It would take thousands of counted roll competitions in order to produce stable results. As for the small roll counts I am working with, everyone can be considered to have beginners luck, or as with the saps like me, considered to be unfortunate =)
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zorais
- Posts: 89
- Joined: Wed Sep 30, 2009 2:47 pm
- Location: oregon
Re: Hot Dice!
The "Luck value" can be considered terms of each roll you make. If you roll on a spell against 30 people, you can add 29/30 to your luck score. If you lose that roll, you subtract 1/30 from the score. You can sort of keep a running tally of your luck score in that way.
So my score is -27. If I win a spell against 30 rolls. My new score is (-27)+(29/30) = -26.03. If I lose the roll my new score will be (-27)-(1/30)= -27.03
So my score is -27. If I win a spell against 30 rolls. My new score is (-27)+(29/30) = -26.03. If I lose the roll my new score will be (-27)-(1/30)= -27.03
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Damaddar
- Posts: 54
- Joined: Fri Mar 26, 2004 4:31 pm
Re: Hot Dice!
Yeah, my formula should calculate the probability of winning given a certain number you roll against a certain amount of competition. Also for further clarity, the odds formula i provided is for finding the odds for something to occur. odds against, like you used above is (1-P)/P.
What you did is right (as far as I know), and way easier to digest. My method should still work, but I would use yours instead. Easy way to check is to look at Sanelyene's rolls. Might not be a lot of fun for you, but if method is correct, it suggests that most of Sanelyene's winning rolls have been with a lot of competition (total amount of rolls won: 28/186 (rank 50). Luck value: 9.27 rank 1). A detailed way of saying sanelyene has all of her purity augs and rank III's!
What you did is right (as far as I know), and way easier to digest. My method should still work, but I would use yours instead. Easy way to check is to look at Sanelyene's rolls. Might not be a lot of fun for you, but if method is correct, it suggests that most of Sanelyene's winning rolls have been with a lot of competition (total amount of rolls won: 28/186 (rank 50). Luck value: 9.27 rank 1). A detailed way of saying sanelyene has all of her purity augs and rank III's!
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sanelyene
- Posts: 30
- Joined: Fri Oct 17, 2008 12:15 am
Re: Hot Dice!
Yes, As a matter of fact I do have all my purity augs but not nearly enough of rank 3 spells! Now if this was only true of me being number one at rolling??!
Or rather now you jinxed me! *cries*
hehe
Saney
Or rather now you jinxed me! *cries*
hehe
Saney
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zorais
- Posts: 89
- Joined: Wed Sep 30, 2009 2:47 pm
- Location: oregon
Re: Hot Dice!
Thanks for the confirmation Damaddar. I went ahead and compared Sanelyene, Sollas and Anas. The comparison graph is on Facebook atm:
http://www.facebook.com/album.php?aid=1 ... 9633c81a5e
I also did a quick sum of 'a totals' and 'a wins' column that should have equaled each other. They didn't. I was thinking the -27 luck value seemed fishy and I was right. It turns out my filtering technique had to be repeated once in order to remove all the log entries that were not involved in a 32k, one-chance competition. The rankings are pretty close to the previous rankings, but the values are much cleaner now.
As for sanelyene's luck, she won 6 rolls that were fairly high odds (21,23,23,24,25,36). Compared to others, 6 wins in that range are rare. Add those 6 to the generally descent luck she has with rolls and it shoots her odds up for a while. Sollas was the lowest ranked. His 6 highest roll competitions are no where near sanelyene's (11,11,13,14,15,26). Anas had a sample size near the same as sanelyene's, and had a luck value near 0, ranked almost in the middle. Anas' top 6 are 8,8,10,13,15,19.
Here's the new results. A minimum of 30 counted rolls were needed to be ranked.
Top 10 Luck value
1 Sanelyene 10.3
2 Marcellox 9.3
3 Goodytoshoes 8.2
4 Crystill 7.4
5 Trilo 6.7
6 Ktasi 5.6
7 Mezzlar 5.5
8 Stomponyourface 5.5
9 Efton 5.4
10 Pisaster 5.2
Bottom 10 Luck value
99 Babsy -4.5
100 Ebeb -4.7
101 Anzen -4.8
102 Sued -5.0
103 Sarellen -5.0
104 Brystorm -5.1
105 Zorais -5.2
106 Luthair -6.4
107 Huge -6.8
108 Sollas -7.8
Aalanorn [win%] 40.0% (2/5) [Luck value] 0.65
Aanomine [win%] (rank 9) 20.0% (25/125) [Luck value] (rank 29) 2.38
Adruger [win%] 14.5% (18/124) [Luck value] 0.89
Aedorhm [win%] 20.0% (5/25) [Luck value] 0.94
Aeian [win%] 26.7% (4/15) [Luck value] 1.88
Aeyr [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.33
Aiyee [win%] 0.0% (0/3) [Luck value] -0.20
Aloalo [win%] 25.0% (1/4) [Luck value] -0.25
Amaquin [win%] 0.0% (0/3) [Luck value] -0.74
Anas [win%] (rank 59) 14.0% (24/172) [Luck value] (rank 52) 0.11
Andrel [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.17
Angelhearted [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.20
Angiee [win%] 0.0% (0/5) [Luck value] -0.94
Antibane [win%] (rank 56) 14.1% (25/177) [Luck value] (rank 67) -0.87
Anzen [win%] (rank 82) 11.9% (24/202) [Luck value] (rank 101) -4.82
Arlyana [win%] 16.7% (7/42) [Luck value] 0.93
Armanie [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.75
Artimmus [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.25
Astraiea [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.50
Aubriana [win%] (rank 86) 11.4% (8/70) [Luck value] (rank 57) -0.21
Auluvanye [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.08
Aurelius [win%] 27.7% (13/47) [Luck value] 3.63
Baadaxx [win%] 0.0% (0/2) [Luck value] -0.67
Babsy [win%] (rank 106) 6.2% (9/146) [Luck value] (rank 99) -4.51
Bairstan [win%] 17.9% (7/39) [Luck value] -0.62
Beaggon [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.67
Beatmetodeath [win%] 66.7% (2/3) [Luck value] 1.34
Beerwitch [win%] 25.0% (1/4) [Luck value] 0.24
Beetdown [win%] 11.1% (2/18) [Luck value] -0.22
Beldarrian [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.33
Berillious [win%] 0.0% (0/10) [Luck value] -1.75
Bigz [win%] 0.0% (0/3) [Luck value] -0.54
Biohazerdus [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.50
Bordeaux [win%] 20.0% (1/5) [Luck value] -0.37
Borys [win%] 60.0% (3/5) [Luck value] 1.97
Braenlin [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.50
Brystorm [win%] (rank 107) 4.8% (6/125) [Luck value] (rank 104) -5.07
Buton [win%] 14.7% (5/34) [Luck value] -0.48
Calebe [win%] (rank 101) 9.3% (18/193) [Luck value] (rank 89) -3.57
Calliea [win%] 23.3% (7/30) [Luck value] 3.42
Camlinae [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.06
Caradeb [win%] 0.0% (0/6) [Luck value] -1.87
Cardeon [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.08
Carpathia [win%] 15.9% (23/145) [Luck value] 2.16
Cellar [win%] (rank 37) 15.9% (23/145) [Luck value] (rank 61) -0.32
Chaosis [win%] 16.7% (1/6) [Luck value] 0.48
Cinda [win%] 10.5% (2/19) [Luck value] -0.08
Cinfull [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.25
Cordelone [win%] (rank 46) 15.2% (7/46) [Luck value] (rank 30) 2.31
Cormill [win%] 25.0% (2/8) [Luck value] 1.13
Crane [win%] (rank 52) 14.5% (18/124) [Luck value] (rank 92) -3.86
Crystalmind [win%] 14.3% (3/21) [Luck value] -1.24
Crystill [win%] (rank 16) 18.7% (20/107) [Luck value] (rank 4) 7.40
Ctitaisaka [win%] 12.1% (17/141) [Luck value] -5.11
Daaw [win%] (rank 47) 15.2% (14/92) [Luck value] (rank 53) 0.03
Daifu [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.08
Daktarr [win%] 0.0% (0/2) [Luck value] -0.83
Damaddar [win%] (rank 100) 9.7% (17/176) [Luck value] (rank 97) -4.23
Damezer [win%] 0.0% (0/3) [Luck value] -0.91
Damieean [win%] (rank 1) 29.7% (22/74) [Luck value] (rank 11) 5.06
Dancoern [win%] 25.0% (1/4) [Luck value] 0.33
Dandore [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.14
Daneldil [win%] (rank 7) 22.2% (28/126) [Luck value] (rank 21) 3.38
Dankerone [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.20
Daqar [win%] (rank 62) 13.7% (17/124) [Luck value] (rank 27) 2.45
Darklion [win%] (rank 91) 11.0% (23/210) [Luck value] (rank 76) -1.84
Dasmagi [win%] (rank 23) 17.6% (19/108) [Luck value] (rank 28) 2.39
Deaddor [win%] 20.9% (9/43) [Luck value] 2.64
Deathan [win%] 19.2% (5/26) [Luck value] 0.08
Dedarye [win%] 16.1% (5/31) [Luck value] -0.02
Deedly [win%] (rank 66) 13.6% (29/213) [Luck value] (rank 59) -0.25
Deevah [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.33
Defer [win%] 6.3% (2/32) [Luck value] -3.41
Delphae [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.92
Dengar [win%] 0.0% (0/5) [Luck value] -0.27
Derath [win%] 20.0% (1/5) [Luck value] -0.32
Destruktr [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.08
Diamondfire [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.67
Dinozzo [win%] 20.0% (3/15) [Luck value] 0.09
Diwindy [win%] 3.7% (1/27) [Luck value] -1.87
Donglad [win%] (rank 54) 14.3% (15/105) [Luck value] (rank 72) -1.28
Dracnus [win%] 15.2% (12/79) [Luck value] -1.54
Dragontamer [win%] 12.2% (6/49) [Luck value] 0.18
Dreico [win%] 25.0% (6/24) [Luck value] -0.02
Drokoh [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.33
Eagles [win%] (rank 71) 12.7% (17/134) [Luck value] (rank 83) -2.68
Ebeb [win%] (rank 72) 12.4% (22/177) [Luck value] (rank 100) -4.74
Edmore [win%] 5.6% (1/18) [Luck value] -2.29
Eequinoxx [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.50
Efton [win%] (rank 17) 18.5% (34/184) [Luck value] (rank 9) 5.36
Egosmasher [win%] 0.0% (0/2) [Luck value] -0.58
Elerion [win%] 16.3% (8/49) [Luck value] 2.04
Elinusn [win%] (rank 27) 16.9% (24/142) [Luck value] (rank 33) 1.66
Elriq [win%] 50.0% (1/2) [Luck value] 0.00
Elumar [win%] (rank 79) 12.1% (14/116) [Luck value] (rank 75) -1.72
Elwingg [win%] 20.0% (4/20) [Luck value] 0.63
Exran [win%] 16.7% (1/6) [Luck value] 0.12
Fable [win%] 8.5% (4/47) [Luck value] -3.77
Falin [win%] 50.0% (1/2) [Luck value] 0.72
Farran [win%] 100.0% (2/2) [Luck value] 1.30
Fasha [win%] 17.5% (7/40) [Luck value] -1.80
Felicianna [win%] (rank 5) 24.1% (19/79) [Luck value] (rank 13) 4.62
Fenadh [win%] 0.0% (0/2) [Luck value] -0.75
Fidobeggins [win%] 12.4% (16/129) [Luck value] -1.04
Filadarya [win%] 18.2% (2/11) [Luck value] 0.22
Fintin [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.50
Fireangel [win%] 12.7% (8/63) [Luck value] -0.99
Flece [win%] 18.4% (7/38) [Luck value] 0.48
Flipo [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.08
Foollin [win%] 0.0% (0/3) [Luck value] -0.68
Forgetful [win%] 14.8% (4/27) [Luck value] 0.79
Foxzman [win%] 40.0% (2/5) [Luck value] 0.08
Fradie [win%] (rank 18) 18.4% (14/76) [Luck value] (rank 44) 0.46
Freakbabydoll [win%] (rank 15) 18.9% (10/53) [Luck value] (rank 65) -0.74
Furbenx [win%] 18.2% (2/11) [Luck value] 0.26
Fyrmn [win%] (rank 87) 11.4% (4/35) [Luck value] (rank 42) 0.51
Gaerwind [win%] (rank 94) 10.6% (11/104) [Luck value] (rank 80) -2.10
Gaggrol [win%] (rank 14) 18.9% (24/127) [Luck value] (rank 32) 1.99
Galamann [win%] (rank 76) 12.3% (15/122) [Luck value] (rank 98) -4.47
Galeon [win%] (rank 97) 10.2% (9/88) [Luck value] (rank 96) -4.17
Geiblex [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.25
Genadienx [win%] 11.1% (1/9) [Luck value] -0.27
Gindaas [win%] (rank 83) 11.5% (18/156) [Luck value] (rank 79) -2.08
Goae [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.67
Gokujin [win%] (rank 80) 11.9% (16/134) [Luck value] (rank 78) -2.03
Goodytoshoes [win%] (rank 8 ) 21.9% (21/96) [Luck value] (rank 3) 8.22
Gotterdammerung [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.83
Gringo [win%] (rank 53) 14.4% (14/97) [Luck value] (rank 45) 0.41
Haggies [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.25
Hamilkar [win%] (rank 10) 19.8% (23/116) [Luck value] (rank 18) 3.91
Hardwater [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.33
Hazdrak [win%] 8.3% (1/12) [Luck value] -1.85
Hnooker [win%] 20.0% (1/5) [Luck value] 0.28
Huge [win%] (rank 103) 8.1% (13/161) [Luck value] (rank 107) -6.77
Hughjeee [win%] 25.0% (2/8) [Luck value] -0.19
Iaedain [win%] 0.0% (0/2) [Luck value] -0.58
Immense [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.50
Immlazen [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.50
Inanna [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.08
Ionara [win%] 25.9% (7/27) [Luck value] 3.20
Izzn [win%] (rank 34) 16.1% (18/112) [Luck value] (rank 17) 3.98
Jaaimi [win%] (rank 39) 15.8% (9/57) [Luck value] (rank 25) 2.71
Jaerlyn [win%] (rank 102) 8.4% (13/155) [Luck value] (rank 91) -3.78
Jeldar [win%] (rank 64) 13.6% (15/110) [Luck value] (rank 49) 0.17
Jenotia [win%] 66.7% (4/6) [Luck value] 3.09
Jiniane [win%] (rank 30) 16.6% (26/157) [Luck value] (rank 60) -0.30
Johpaul [win%] (rank 77) 12.2% (6/49) [Luck value] (rank 86) -2.92
Judice [win%] 14.7% (5/34) [Luck value] -0.50
Justunin [win%] 0.0% (0/2) [Luck value] -0.09
Kablooie [win%] 100.0% (3/3) [Luck value] 1.83
Kaeamien [win%] (rank 65) 13.6% (6/44) [Luck value] (rank 54) -0.06
Kaneldar [win%] (rank 57) 14.1% (12/85) [Luck value] (rank 62) -0.33
Keeland [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.50
Kethor [win%] (rank 61) 13.7% (18/131) [Luck value] (rank 51) 0.11
Khurggan [win%] (rank 35) 16.1% (18/112) [Luck value] (rank 70) -1.23
Kindread [win%] 20.4% (10/49) [Luck value] 1.10
Kittyara [win%] (rank 3) 25.0% (17/68) [Luck value] (rank 15) 4.29
Kivanarri [win%] (rank 12) 19.2% (14/73) [Luck value] (rank 36) 1.54
Kolek [win%] 33.3% (1/3) [Luck value] 0.29
Kotter [win%] (rank 70) 12.7% (7/55) [Luck value] (rank 77) -1.95
Koutarou [win%] (rank 69) 12.7% (20/157) [Luck value] (rank 55) -0.14
Kraktoa [win%] 18.2% (2/11) [Luck value] -1.65
Krunchi [win%] (rank 32) 16.2% (30/185) [Luck value] (rank 38) 1.50
Ktasi [win%] (rank 6) 23.8% (19/80) [Luck value] (rank 6) 5.63
Kyrah [win%] 17.9% (7/39) [Luck value] 0.57
Lazaros [win%] 80.0% (4/5) [Luck value] 1.83
Leanya [win%] (rank 58) 14.0% (21/150) [Luck value] (rank 69) -1.18
Legolassie [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.17
Leninie [win%] (rank 43) 15.5% (9/58) [Luck value] (rank 56) -0.21
Litefinger [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.25
Lugat [win%] 19.0% (12/63) [Luck value] 3.99
Luthair [win%] (rank 81) 11.9% (25/210) [Luck value] (rank 106) -6.41
Lysena [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.04
Lyssabeth [win%] (rank 92) 10.9% (19/175) [Luck value] (rank 64) -0.59
Lytol [win%] (rank 63) 13.7% (26/190) [Luck value] (rank 87) -3.34
Madadar [win%] (rank 78) 12.2% (6/49) [Luck value] (rank 82) -2.51
Maise [win%] 12.0% (3/25) [Luck value] -0.58
Makkya [win%] 9.1% (1/11) [Luck value] -0.15
Manafire [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.14
Mandi [win%] (rank 4) 24.6% (15/61) [Luck value] (rank 12) 4.89
Manhyme [win%] 0.0% (0/2) [Luck value] -0.10
Marcellox [win%] (rank 22) 17.7% (26/147) [Luck value] (rank 2) 9.32
Mariathon [win%] 19.6% (36/184) [Luck value] -0.50
Matthius [win%] 8.3% (1/12) [Luck value] -0.26
Meatslab [win%] 28.9% (11/38) [Luck value] 3.58
Megadrunk [win%] 0.0% (0/5) [Luck value] -1.03
Meleehazard [win%] 0.0% (0/2) [Luck value] -0.42
Mezzlar [win%] (rank 31) 16.3% (52/320) [Luck value] (rank 7) 5.48
Micaiah [win%] (rank 73) 12.4% (13/105) [Luck value] (rank 50) 0.13
Miniquater [win%] 16.0% (8/50) [Luck value] -0.95
Momaviolet [win%] (rank 28) 16.9% (30/178) [Luck value] (rank 23) 2.91
Moorl [win%] 14.1% (14/99) [Luck value] 0.13
Morbous [win%] (rank 50) 14.6% (42/287) [Luck value] (rank 81) -2.39
Mudaan [win%] 17.6% (3/17) [Luck value] -0.54
Mumar [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.08
Naradan [win%] 0.0% (0/2) [Luck value] -0.67
Narus [win%] 10.9% (7/64) [Luck value] -2.89
Necrosa [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.67
Nevus [win%] (rank 89) 11.2% (31/276) [Luck value] (rank 63) -0.54
Nevva [win%] 28.6% (2/7) [Luck value] -0.45
Niffy [win%] 0.0% (0/4) [Luck value] -0.69
Nirolf [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.50
Nirrzen [win%] 11.3% (8/71) [Luck value] -4.13
Nossral [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.13
Notcher [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.14
Octavian [win%] 0.0% (0/2) [Luck value] -0.42
Opius [win%] 0.0% (0/3) [Luck value] -0.78
Outburst [win%] 50.0% (1/2) [Luck value] 0.00
Pallasathene [win%] 50.0% (2/4) [Luck value] 1.03
Paltion [win%] 21.1% (12/57) [Luck value] 0.23
Paris [win%] 23.8% (10/42) [Luck value] 2.03
Phinder [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.50
Phreddye [win%] 33.3% (1/3) [Luck value] 0.00
Pikkon [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.33
Pisaster [win%] (rank 21) 17.7% (33/186) [Luck value] (rank 10) 5.25
Ppmaker [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.67
Precocious [win%] (rank 60) 13.8% (11/80) [Luck value] (rank 22) 3.18
Privilege [win%] 23.1% (3/13) [Luck value] 0.67
Pullin [win%] 10.3% (3/29) [Luck value] -2.36
Pyrotechniic [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.50
Qaean [win%] 16.7% (1/6) [Luck value] -0.65
Qaidya [win%] (rank 49) 14.8% (31/209) [Luck value] (rank 90) -3.77
Quaggmire [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.08
Rago [win%] (rank 41) 15.7% (37/235) [Luck value] (rank 31) 2.12
Railmen [win%] (rank 29) 16.8% (18/107) [Luck value] (rank 26) 2.53
Razzull [win%] (rank 108) 2.6% (1/39) [Luck value] (rank 85) -2.78
Rebelfists [win%] 21.6% (16/74) [Luck value] 0.50
Renious [win%] 20.8% (10/48) [Luck value] 1.89
Renoku [win%] 13.5% (18/133) [Luck value] -1.17
Requeim [win%] 17.4% (8/46) [Luck value] 2.08
Ribbitribbit [win%] (rank 26) 17.1% (21/123) [Luck value] (rank 39) 1.25
Rodana [win%] (rank 98) 10.0% (4/40) [Luck value] (rank 48) 0.34
Rukus [win%] (rank 2) 25.6% (10/39) [Luck value] (rank 24) 2.87
Sabbi [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.75
Sanelyene [win%] (rank 48) 15.2% (28/184) [Luck value] (rank 1) 10.27
Sarellen [win%] (rank 96) 10.3% (28/273) [Luck value] (rank 103) -4.99
Sarrenna [win%] (rank 68) 13.0% (13/100) [Luck value] (rank 41) 0.55
Savoya [win%] 19.8% (18/91) [Luck value] 2.90
Scathaigh [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.50
Selin [win%] 0.0% (0/3) [Luck value] -0.35
Seratta [win%] (rank 20) 17.9% (14/78) [Luck value] (rank 43) 0.48
Serogy [win%] (rank 67) 13.1% (27/206) [Luck value] (rank 95) -4.16
Shadvir [win%] 22.6% (7/31) [Luck value] 1.90
Shartie [win%] (rank 105) 6.3% (3/48) [Luck value] (rank 94) -4.11
Shasko [win%] 14.1% (10/71) [Luck value] 0.37
Shayden [win%] (rank 24) 17.3% (22/127) [Luck value] (rank 35) 1.58
Shilezaka [win%] 8.3% (1/12) [Luck value] 0.06
Shrader [win%] 11.3% (7/62) [Luck value] -2.67
Shyman [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.50
Sildera [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.90
Silver [win%] (rank 44) 15.5% (13/84) [Luck value] (rank 73) -1.54
Simm [win%] 15.2% (15/99) [Luck value] -1.35
Sissee [win%] (rank 75) 12.3% (23/187) [Luck value] (rank 34) 1.62
Slashmoor [win%] 15.8% (3/19) [Luck value] 0.36
Sliggoth [win%] (rank 25) 17.1% (25/146) [Luck value] (rank 46) 0.38
Solin [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.67
Sollas [win%] (rank 93) 10.8% (26/241) [Luck value] (rank 108) -7.79
Somelikeithot [win%] 28.6% (4/14) [Luck value] 2.25
Somen [win%] (rank 42) 15.7% (14/89) [Luck value] (rank 20) 3.44
Sondaar [win%] 14.3% (4/28) [Luck value] 1.29
Sonette [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.50
Sorcolen [win%] 9.6% (5/52) [Luck value] -3.03
Stomponyourface [win%] (rank 11) 19.4% (25/129) [Luck value] (rank 8 ) 5.45
Stumblelord [win%] (rank 51) 14.6% (13/89) [Luck value] (rank 93) -4.00
Sued [win%] (rank 104) 7.7% (11/143) [Luck value] (rank 102) -4.98
Summerfrost [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.50
Sunkori [win%] (rank 90) 11.0% (9/82) [Luck value] (rank 68) -0.96
Sunsore [win%] 20.0% (1/5) [Luck value] 0.14
Swetegirl [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.50
Swiftwind [win%] 22.2% (6/27) [Luck value] -0.01
Talsheyar [win%] (rank 95) 10.5% (4/38) [Luck value] (rank 58) -0.25
Tandaan [win%] 0.0% (0/3) [Luck value] -0.73
Tandirye [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.25
Tankheal [win%] 0.0% (0/4) [Luck value] -0.25
Temin [win%] 6.3% (1/16) [Luck value] -0.78
Thaobim [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.50
Timeless [win%] 17.0% (9/53) [Luck value] -0.50
Tjay [win%] (rank 88) 11.3% (19/168) [Luck value] (rank 84) -2.68
Trainmonster [win%] (rank 55) 14.3% (12/84) [Luck value] (rank 40) 1.09
Trilo [win%] (rank 40) 15.8% (24/152) [Luck value] (rank 5) 6.74
Tuhpak [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.08
Twign [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.17
Udder [win%] 24.0% (6/25) [Luck value] 0.62
Utanuuar [win%] 20.0% (4/20) [Luck value] 1.32
Valspar [win%] (rank 45) 15.4% (16/104) [Luck value] (rank 37) 1.53
Vantose [win%] 0.0% (0/8) [Luck value] -1.57
Varlon [win%] (rank 13) 19.0% (8/42) [Luck value] (rank 66) -0.85
Ventrick [win%] 0.0% (0/11) [Luck value] -1.81
Victorhealer [win%] (rank 84) 11.5% (16/139) [Luck value] (rank 71) -1.27
Vissili [win%] 13.5% (31/229) [Luck value] -1.99
Waltor [win%] 12.5% (1/8) [Luck value] -0.11
Wanluan [win%] (rank 33) 16.2% (21/130) [Luck value] (rank 47) 0.35
Windyn [win%] 9.8% (12/123) [Luck value] -6.73
Wirtt [win%] 35.0% (7/20) [Luck value] 2.72
Wishfull [win%] 11.1% (3/27) [Luck value] -0.90
Wumuden [win%] 0.0% (0/6) [Luck value] -1.52
Xaavier [win%] 33.3% (1/3) [Luck value] 0.80
Xplodette [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.20
Xrangax [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.50
Xslia [win%] (rank 74) 12.4% (24/194) [Luck value] (rank 19) 3.91
Xukanik [win%] 27.6% (8/29) [Luck value] 1.76
Yachtor [win%] (rank 36) 15.9% (27/170) [Luck value] (rank 14) 4.38
Yamslayer [win%] 50.0% (3/6) [Luck value] 1.99
Yllaena [win%] (rank 85) 11.5% (39/339) [Luck value] (rank 16) 4.11
Yummyone [win%] 0.0% (0/2) [Luck value] -0.58
Zanjin [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.17
Zawrym [win%] 19.2% (5/26) [Luck value] -0.72
Zephros [win%] 0.0% (0/7) [Luck value] -1.31
Zephur [win%] (rank 99) 9.9% (22/223) [Luck value] (rank 88) -3.37
Zerstoer [win%] 4.3% (1/23) [Luck value] -4.87
Zhaaggar [win%] 21.4% (3/14) [Luck value] 1.43
Zielo [win%] (rank 38) 15.8% (16/101) [Luck value] (rank 74) -1.57
Zorais [win%] (rank 19) 18.3% (74/405) [Luck value] (rank 105) -5.16
Zortho [win%] 15.4% (6/39) [Luck value] 0.29
Zurn [win%] 0.0% (0/4) [Luck value] -0.25
Zynada [win%] 16.1% (5/31) [Luck value] 0.62
I'm happy with these results, so I'm posting it all without filtering names. I'll give an explanation of the results.
Zorais [win%] (rank 19) 18.3% (74/405) [Luck value] (rank 105) -5.16
I had 74 wins, and 405 total counted rolls which gave me a win percentage of 18.3%. When my odds for each roll are tallied, I have bad luck with negative 5.16.
http://www.facebook.com/album.php?aid=1 ... 9633c81a5e
I also did a quick sum of 'a totals' and 'a wins' column that should have equaled each other. They didn't. I was thinking the -27 luck value seemed fishy and I was right. It turns out my filtering technique had to be repeated once in order to remove all the log entries that were not involved in a 32k, one-chance competition. The rankings are pretty close to the previous rankings, but the values are much cleaner now.
As for sanelyene's luck, she won 6 rolls that were fairly high odds (21,23,23,24,25,36). Compared to others, 6 wins in that range are rare. Add those 6 to the generally descent luck she has with rolls and it shoots her odds up for a while. Sollas was the lowest ranked. His 6 highest roll competitions are no where near sanelyene's (11,11,13,14,15,26). Anas had a sample size near the same as sanelyene's, and had a luck value near 0, ranked almost in the middle. Anas' top 6 are 8,8,10,13,15,19.
Here's the new results. A minimum of 30 counted rolls were needed to be ranked.
Top 10 Luck value
1 Sanelyene 10.3
2 Marcellox 9.3
3 Goodytoshoes 8.2
4 Crystill 7.4
5 Trilo 6.7
6 Ktasi 5.6
7 Mezzlar 5.5
8 Stomponyourface 5.5
9 Efton 5.4
10 Pisaster 5.2
Bottom 10 Luck value
99 Babsy -4.5
100 Ebeb -4.7
101 Anzen -4.8
102 Sued -5.0
103 Sarellen -5.0
104 Brystorm -5.1
105 Zorais -5.2
106 Luthair -6.4
107 Huge -6.8
108 Sollas -7.8
Aalanorn [win%] 40.0% (2/5) [Luck value] 0.65
Aanomine [win%] (rank 9) 20.0% (25/125) [Luck value] (rank 29) 2.38
Adruger [win%] 14.5% (18/124) [Luck value] 0.89
Aedorhm [win%] 20.0% (5/25) [Luck value] 0.94
Aeian [win%] 26.7% (4/15) [Luck value] 1.88
Aeyr [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.33
Aiyee [win%] 0.0% (0/3) [Luck value] -0.20
Aloalo [win%] 25.0% (1/4) [Luck value] -0.25
Amaquin [win%] 0.0% (0/3) [Luck value] -0.74
Anas [win%] (rank 59) 14.0% (24/172) [Luck value] (rank 52) 0.11
Andrel [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.17
Angelhearted [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.20
Angiee [win%] 0.0% (0/5) [Luck value] -0.94
Antibane [win%] (rank 56) 14.1% (25/177) [Luck value] (rank 67) -0.87
Anzen [win%] (rank 82) 11.9% (24/202) [Luck value] (rank 101) -4.82
Arlyana [win%] 16.7% (7/42) [Luck value] 0.93
Armanie [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.75
Artimmus [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.25
Astraiea [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.50
Aubriana [win%] (rank 86) 11.4% (8/70) [Luck value] (rank 57) -0.21
Auluvanye [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.08
Aurelius [win%] 27.7% (13/47) [Luck value] 3.63
Baadaxx [win%] 0.0% (0/2) [Luck value] -0.67
Babsy [win%] (rank 106) 6.2% (9/146) [Luck value] (rank 99) -4.51
Bairstan [win%] 17.9% (7/39) [Luck value] -0.62
Beaggon [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.67
Beatmetodeath [win%] 66.7% (2/3) [Luck value] 1.34
Beerwitch [win%] 25.0% (1/4) [Luck value] 0.24
Beetdown [win%] 11.1% (2/18) [Luck value] -0.22
Beldarrian [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.33
Berillious [win%] 0.0% (0/10) [Luck value] -1.75
Bigz [win%] 0.0% (0/3) [Luck value] -0.54
Biohazerdus [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.50
Bordeaux [win%] 20.0% (1/5) [Luck value] -0.37
Borys [win%] 60.0% (3/5) [Luck value] 1.97
Braenlin [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.50
Brystorm [win%] (rank 107) 4.8% (6/125) [Luck value] (rank 104) -5.07
Buton [win%] 14.7% (5/34) [Luck value] -0.48
Calebe [win%] (rank 101) 9.3% (18/193) [Luck value] (rank 89) -3.57
Calliea [win%] 23.3% (7/30) [Luck value] 3.42
Camlinae [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.06
Caradeb [win%] 0.0% (0/6) [Luck value] -1.87
Cardeon [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.08
Carpathia [win%] 15.9% (23/145) [Luck value] 2.16
Cellar [win%] (rank 37) 15.9% (23/145) [Luck value] (rank 61) -0.32
Chaosis [win%] 16.7% (1/6) [Luck value] 0.48
Cinda [win%] 10.5% (2/19) [Luck value] -0.08
Cinfull [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.25
Cordelone [win%] (rank 46) 15.2% (7/46) [Luck value] (rank 30) 2.31
Cormill [win%] 25.0% (2/8) [Luck value] 1.13
Crane [win%] (rank 52) 14.5% (18/124) [Luck value] (rank 92) -3.86
Crystalmind [win%] 14.3% (3/21) [Luck value] -1.24
Crystill [win%] (rank 16) 18.7% (20/107) [Luck value] (rank 4) 7.40
Ctitaisaka [win%] 12.1% (17/141) [Luck value] -5.11
Daaw [win%] (rank 47) 15.2% (14/92) [Luck value] (rank 53) 0.03
Daifu [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.08
Daktarr [win%] 0.0% (0/2) [Luck value] -0.83
Damaddar [win%] (rank 100) 9.7% (17/176) [Luck value] (rank 97) -4.23
Damezer [win%] 0.0% (0/3) [Luck value] -0.91
Damieean [win%] (rank 1) 29.7% (22/74) [Luck value] (rank 11) 5.06
Dancoern [win%] 25.0% (1/4) [Luck value] 0.33
Dandore [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.14
Daneldil [win%] (rank 7) 22.2% (28/126) [Luck value] (rank 21) 3.38
Dankerone [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.20
Daqar [win%] (rank 62) 13.7% (17/124) [Luck value] (rank 27) 2.45
Darklion [win%] (rank 91) 11.0% (23/210) [Luck value] (rank 76) -1.84
Dasmagi [win%] (rank 23) 17.6% (19/108) [Luck value] (rank 28) 2.39
Deaddor [win%] 20.9% (9/43) [Luck value] 2.64
Deathan [win%] 19.2% (5/26) [Luck value] 0.08
Dedarye [win%] 16.1% (5/31) [Luck value] -0.02
Deedly [win%] (rank 66) 13.6% (29/213) [Luck value] (rank 59) -0.25
Deevah [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.33
Defer [win%] 6.3% (2/32) [Luck value] -3.41
Delphae [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.92
Dengar [win%] 0.0% (0/5) [Luck value] -0.27
Derath [win%] 20.0% (1/5) [Luck value] -0.32
Destruktr [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.08
Diamondfire [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.67
Dinozzo [win%] 20.0% (3/15) [Luck value] 0.09
Diwindy [win%] 3.7% (1/27) [Luck value] -1.87
Donglad [win%] (rank 54) 14.3% (15/105) [Luck value] (rank 72) -1.28
Dracnus [win%] 15.2% (12/79) [Luck value] -1.54
Dragontamer [win%] 12.2% (6/49) [Luck value] 0.18
Dreico [win%] 25.0% (6/24) [Luck value] -0.02
Drokoh [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.33
Eagles [win%] (rank 71) 12.7% (17/134) [Luck value] (rank 83) -2.68
Ebeb [win%] (rank 72) 12.4% (22/177) [Luck value] (rank 100) -4.74
Edmore [win%] 5.6% (1/18) [Luck value] -2.29
Eequinoxx [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.50
Efton [win%] (rank 17) 18.5% (34/184) [Luck value] (rank 9) 5.36
Egosmasher [win%] 0.0% (0/2) [Luck value] -0.58
Elerion [win%] 16.3% (8/49) [Luck value] 2.04
Elinusn [win%] (rank 27) 16.9% (24/142) [Luck value] (rank 33) 1.66
Elriq [win%] 50.0% (1/2) [Luck value] 0.00
Elumar [win%] (rank 79) 12.1% (14/116) [Luck value] (rank 75) -1.72
Elwingg [win%] 20.0% (4/20) [Luck value] 0.63
Exran [win%] 16.7% (1/6) [Luck value] 0.12
Fable [win%] 8.5% (4/47) [Luck value] -3.77
Falin [win%] 50.0% (1/2) [Luck value] 0.72
Farran [win%] 100.0% (2/2) [Luck value] 1.30
Fasha [win%] 17.5% (7/40) [Luck value] -1.80
Felicianna [win%] (rank 5) 24.1% (19/79) [Luck value] (rank 13) 4.62
Fenadh [win%] 0.0% (0/2) [Luck value] -0.75
Fidobeggins [win%] 12.4% (16/129) [Luck value] -1.04
Filadarya [win%] 18.2% (2/11) [Luck value] 0.22
Fintin [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.50
Fireangel [win%] 12.7% (8/63) [Luck value] -0.99
Flece [win%] 18.4% (7/38) [Luck value] 0.48
Flipo [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.08
Foollin [win%] 0.0% (0/3) [Luck value] -0.68
Forgetful [win%] 14.8% (4/27) [Luck value] 0.79
Foxzman [win%] 40.0% (2/5) [Luck value] 0.08
Fradie [win%] (rank 18) 18.4% (14/76) [Luck value] (rank 44) 0.46
Freakbabydoll [win%] (rank 15) 18.9% (10/53) [Luck value] (rank 65) -0.74
Furbenx [win%] 18.2% (2/11) [Luck value] 0.26
Fyrmn [win%] (rank 87) 11.4% (4/35) [Luck value] (rank 42) 0.51
Gaerwind [win%] (rank 94) 10.6% (11/104) [Luck value] (rank 80) -2.10
Gaggrol [win%] (rank 14) 18.9% (24/127) [Luck value] (rank 32) 1.99
Galamann [win%] (rank 76) 12.3% (15/122) [Luck value] (rank 98) -4.47
Galeon [win%] (rank 97) 10.2% (9/88) [Luck value] (rank 96) -4.17
Geiblex [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.25
Genadienx [win%] 11.1% (1/9) [Luck value] -0.27
Gindaas [win%] (rank 83) 11.5% (18/156) [Luck value] (rank 79) -2.08
Goae [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.67
Gokujin [win%] (rank 80) 11.9% (16/134) [Luck value] (rank 78) -2.03
Goodytoshoes [win%] (rank 8 ) 21.9% (21/96) [Luck value] (rank 3) 8.22
Gotterdammerung [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.83
Gringo [win%] (rank 53) 14.4% (14/97) [Luck value] (rank 45) 0.41
Haggies [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.25
Hamilkar [win%] (rank 10) 19.8% (23/116) [Luck value] (rank 18) 3.91
Hardwater [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.33
Hazdrak [win%] 8.3% (1/12) [Luck value] -1.85
Hnooker [win%] 20.0% (1/5) [Luck value] 0.28
Huge [win%] (rank 103) 8.1% (13/161) [Luck value] (rank 107) -6.77
Hughjeee [win%] 25.0% (2/8) [Luck value] -0.19
Iaedain [win%] 0.0% (0/2) [Luck value] -0.58
Immense [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.50
Immlazen [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.50
Inanna [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.08
Ionara [win%] 25.9% (7/27) [Luck value] 3.20
Izzn [win%] (rank 34) 16.1% (18/112) [Luck value] (rank 17) 3.98
Jaaimi [win%] (rank 39) 15.8% (9/57) [Luck value] (rank 25) 2.71
Jaerlyn [win%] (rank 102) 8.4% (13/155) [Luck value] (rank 91) -3.78
Jeldar [win%] (rank 64) 13.6% (15/110) [Luck value] (rank 49) 0.17
Jenotia [win%] 66.7% (4/6) [Luck value] 3.09
Jiniane [win%] (rank 30) 16.6% (26/157) [Luck value] (rank 60) -0.30
Johpaul [win%] (rank 77) 12.2% (6/49) [Luck value] (rank 86) -2.92
Judice [win%] 14.7% (5/34) [Luck value] -0.50
Justunin [win%] 0.0% (0/2) [Luck value] -0.09
Kablooie [win%] 100.0% (3/3) [Luck value] 1.83
Kaeamien [win%] (rank 65) 13.6% (6/44) [Luck value] (rank 54) -0.06
Kaneldar [win%] (rank 57) 14.1% (12/85) [Luck value] (rank 62) -0.33
Keeland [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.50
Kethor [win%] (rank 61) 13.7% (18/131) [Luck value] (rank 51) 0.11
Khurggan [win%] (rank 35) 16.1% (18/112) [Luck value] (rank 70) -1.23
Kindread [win%] 20.4% (10/49) [Luck value] 1.10
Kittyara [win%] (rank 3) 25.0% (17/68) [Luck value] (rank 15) 4.29
Kivanarri [win%] (rank 12) 19.2% (14/73) [Luck value] (rank 36) 1.54
Kolek [win%] 33.3% (1/3) [Luck value] 0.29
Kotter [win%] (rank 70) 12.7% (7/55) [Luck value] (rank 77) -1.95
Koutarou [win%] (rank 69) 12.7% (20/157) [Luck value] (rank 55) -0.14
Kraktoa [win%] 18.2% (2/11) [Luck value] -1.65
Krunchi [win%] (rank 32) 16.2% (30/185) [Luck value] (rank 38) 1.50
Ktasi [win%] (rank 6) 23.8% (19/80) [Luck value] (rank 6) 5.63
Kyrah [win%] 17.9% (7/39) [Luck value] 0.57
Lazaros [win%] 80.0% (4/5) [Luck value] 1.83
Leanya [win%] (rank 58) 14.0% (21/150) [Luck value] (rank 69) -1.18
Legolassie [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.17
Leninie [win%] (rank 43) 15.5% (9/58) [Luck value] (rank 56) -0.21
Litefinger [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.25
Lugat [win%] 19.0% (12/63) [Luck value] 3.99
Luthair [win%] (rank 81) 11.9% (25/210) [Luck value] (rank 106) -6.41
Lysena [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.04
Lyssabeth [win%] (rank 92) 10.9% (19/175) [Luck value] (rank 64) -0.59
Lytol [win%] (rank 63) 13.7% (26/190) [Luck value] (rank 87) -3.34
Madadar [win%] (rank 78) 12.2% (6/49) [Luck value] (rank 82) -2.51
Maise [win%] 12.0% (3/25) [Luck value] -0.58
Makkya [win%] 9.1% (1/11) [Luck value] -0.15
Manafire [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.14
Mandi [win%] (rank 4) 24.6% (15/61) [Luck value] (rank 12) 4.89
Manhyme [win%] 0.0% (0/2) [Luck value] -0.10
Marcellox [win%] (rank 22) 17.7% (26/147) [Luck value] (rank 2) 9.32
Mariathon [win%] 19.6% (36/184) [Luck value] -0.50
Matthius [win%] 8.3% (1/12) [Luck value] -0.26
Meatslab [win%] 28.9% (11/38) [Luck value] 3.58
Megadrunk [win%] 0.0% (0/5) [Luck value] -1.03
Meleehazard [win%] 0.0% (0/2) [Luck value] -0.42
Mezzlar [win%] (rank 31) 16.3% (52/320) [Luck value] (rank 7) 5.48
Micaiah [win%] (rank 73) 12.4% (13/105) [Luck value] (rank 50) 0.13
Miniquater [win%] 16.0% (8/50) [Luck value] -0.95
Momaviolet [win%] (rank 28) 16.9% (30/178) [Luck value] (rank 23) 2.91
Moorl [win%] 14.1% (14/99) [Luck value] 0.13
Morbous [win%] (rank 50) 14.6% (42/287) [Luck value] (rank 81) -2.39
Mudaan [win%] 17.6% (3/17) [Luck value] -0.54
Mumar [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.08
Naradan [win%] 0.0% (0/2) [Luck value] -0.67
Narus [win%] 10.9% (7/64) [Luck value] -2.89
Necrosa [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.67
Nevus [win%] (rank 89) 11.2% (31/276) [Luck value] (rank 63) -0.54
Nevva [win%] 28.6% (2/7) [Luck value] -0.45
Niffy [win%] 0.0% (0/4) [Luck value] -0.69
Nirolf [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.50
Nirrzen [win%] 11.3% (8/71) [Luck value] -4.13
Nossral [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.13
Notcher [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.14
Octavian [win%] 0.0% (0/2) [Luck value] -0.42
Opius [win%] 0.0% (0/3) [Luck value] -0.78
Outburst [win%] 50.0% (1/2) [Luck value] 0.00
Pallasathene [win%] 50.0% (2/4) [Luck value] 1.03
Paltion [win%] 21.1% (12/57) [Luck value] 0.23
Paris [win%] 23.8% (10/42) [Luck value] 2.03
Phinder [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.50
Phreddye [win%] 33.3% (1/3) [Luck value] 0.00
Pikkon [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.33
Pisaster [win%] (rank 21) 17.7% (33/186) [Luck value] (rank 10) 5.25
Ppmaker [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.67
Precocious [win%] (rank 60) 13.8% (11/80) [Luck value] (rank 22) 3.18
Privilege [win%] 23.1% (3/13) [Luck value] 0.67
Pullin [win%] 10.3% (3/29) [Luck value] -2.36
Pyrotechniic [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.50
Qaean [win%] 16.7% (1/6) [Luck value] -0.65
Qaidya [win%] (rank 49) 14.8% (31/209) [Luck value] (rank 90) -3.77
Quaggmire [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.08
Rago [win%] (rank 41) 15.7% (37/235) [Luck value] (rank 31) 2.12
Railmen [win%] (rank 29) 16.8% (18/107) [Luck value] (rank 26) 2.53
Razzull [win%] (rank 108) 2.6% (1/39) [Luck value] (rank 85) -2.78
Rebelfists [win%] 21.6% (16/74) [Luck value] 0.50
Renious [win%] 20.8% (10/48) [Luck value] 1.89
Renoku [win%] 13.5% (18/133) [Luck value] -1.17
Requeim [win%] 17.4% (8/46) [Luck value] 2.08
Ribbitribbit [win%] (rank 26) 17.1% (21/123) [Luck value] (rank 39) 1.25
Rodana [win%] (rank 98) 10.0% (4/40) [Luck value] (rank 48) 0.34
Rukus [win%] (rank 2) 25.6% (10/39) [Luck value] (rank 24) 2.87
Sabbi [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.75
Sanelyene [win%] (rank 48) 15.2% (28/184) [Luck value] (rank 1) 10.27
Sarellen [win%] (rank 96) 10.3% (28/273) [Luck value] (rank 103) -4.99
Sarrenna [win%] (rank 68) 13.0% (13/100) [Luck value] (rank 41) 0.55
Savoya [win%] 19.8% (18/91) [Luck value] 2.90
Scathaigh [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.50
Selin [win%] 0.0% (0/3) [Luck value] -0.35
Seratta [win%] (rank 20) 17.9% (14/78) [Luck value] (rank 43) 0.48
Serogy [win%] (rank 67) 13.1% (27/206) [Luck value] (rank 95) -4.16
Shadvir [win%] 22.6% (7/31) [Luck value] 1.90
Shartie [win%] (rank 105) 6.3% (3/48) [Luck value] (rank 94) -4.11
Shasko [win%] 14.1% (10/71) [Luck value] 0.37
Shayden [win%] (rank 24) 17.3% (22/127) [Luck value] (rank 35) 1.58
Shilezaka [win%] 8.3% (1/12) [Luck value] 0.06
Shrader [win%] 11.3% (7/62) [Luck value] -2.67
Shyman [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.50
Sildera [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.90
Silver [win%] (rank 44) 15.5% (13/84) [Luck value] (rank 73) -1.54
Simm [win%] 15.2% (15/99) [Luck value] -1.35
Sissee [win%] (rank 75) 12.3% (23/187) [Luck value] (rank 34) 1.62
Slashmoor [win%] 15.8% (3/19) [Luck value] 0.36
Sliggoth [win%] (rank 25) 17.1% (25/146) [Luck value] (rank 46) 0.38
Solin [win%] 100.0% (1/1) [Luck value] 0.67
Sollas [win%] (rank 93) 10.8% (26/241) [Luck value] (rank 108) -7.79
Somelikeithot [win%] 28.6% (4/14) [Luck value] 2.25
Somen [win%] (rank 42) 15.7% (14/89) [Luck value] (rank 20) 3.44
Sondaar [win%] 14.3% (4/28) [Luck value] 1.29
Sonette [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.50
Sorcolen [win%] 9.6% (5/52) [Luck value] -3.03
Stomponyourface [win%] (rank 11) 19.4% (25/129) [Luck value] (rank 8 ) 5.45
Stumblelord [win%] (rank 51) 14.6% (13/89) [Luck value] (rank 93) -4.00
Sued [win%] (rank 104) 7.7% (11/143) [Luck value] (rank 102) -4.98
Summerfrost [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.50
Sunkori [win%] (rank 90) 11.0% (9/82) [Luck value] (rank 68) -0.96
Sunsore [win%] 20.0% (1/5) [Luck value] 0.14
Swetegirl [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.50
Swiftwind [win%] 22.2% (6/27) [Luck value] -0.01
Talsheyar [win%] (rank 95) 10.5% (4/38) [Luck value] (rank 58) -0.25
Tandaan [win%] 0.0% (0/3) [Luck value] -0.73
Tandirye [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.25
Tankheal [win%] 0.0% (0/4) [Luck value] -0.25
Temin [win%] 6.3% (1/16) [Luck value] -0.78
Thaobim [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.50
Timeless [win%] 17.0% (9/53) [Luck value] -0.50
Tjay [win%] (rank 88) 11.3% (19/168) [Luck value] (rank 84) -2.68
Trainmonster [win%] (rank 55) 14.3% (12/84) [Luck value] (rank 40) 1.09
Trilo [win%] (rank 40) 15.8% (24/152) [Luck value] (rank 5) 6.74
Tuhpak [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.08
Twign [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.17
Udder [win%] 24.0% (6/25) [Luck value] 0.62
Utanuuar [win%] 20.0% (4/20) [Luck value] 1.32
Valspar [win%] (rank 45) 15.4% (16/104) [Luck value] (rank 37) 1.53
Vantose [win%] 0.0% (0/8) [Luck value] -1.57
Varlon [win%] (rank 13) 19.0% (8/42) [Luck value] (rank 66) -0.85
Ventrick [win%] 0.0% (0/11) [Luck value] -1.81
Victorhealer [win%] (rank 84) 11.5% (16/139) [Luck value] (rank 71) -1.27
Vissili [win%] 13.5% (31/229) [Luck value] -1.99
Waltor [win%] 12.5% (1/8) [Luck value] -0.11
Wanluan [win%] (rank 33) 16.2% (21/130) [Luck value] (rank 47) 0.35
Windyn [win%] 9.8% (12/123) [Luck value] -6.73
Wirtt [win%] 35.0% (7/20) [Luck value] 2.72
Wishfull [win%] 11.1% (3/27) [Luck value] -0.90
Wumuden [win%] 0.0% (0/6) [Luck value] -1.52
Xaavier [win%] 33.3% (1/3) [Luck value] 0.80
Xplodette [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.20
Xrangax [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.50
Xslia [win%] (rank 74) 12.4% (24/194) [Luck value] (rank 19) 3.91
Xukanik [win%] 27.6% (8/29) [Luck value] 1.76
Yachtor [win%] (rank 36) 15.9% (27/170) [Luck value] (rank 14) 4.38
Yamslayer [win%] 50.0% (3/6) [Luck value] 1.99
Yllaena [win%] (rank 85) 11.5% (39/339) [Luck value] (rank 16) 4.11
Yummyone [win%] 0.0% (0/2) [Luck value] -0.58
Zanjin [win%] 0.0% (0/1) [Luck value] -0.17
Zawrym [win%] 19.2% (5/26) [Luck value] -0.72
Zephros [win%] 0.0% (0/7) [Luck value] -1.31
Zephur [win%] (rank 99) 9.9% (22/223) [Luck value] (rank 88) -3.37
Zerstoer [win%] 4.3% (1/23) [Luck value] -4.87
Zhaaggar [win%] 21.4% (3/14) [Luck value] 1.43
Zielo [win%] (rank 38) 15.8% (16/101) [Luck value] (rank 74) -1.57
Zorais [win%] (rank 19) 18.3% (74/405) [Luck value] (rank 105) -5.16
Zortho [win%] 15.4% (6/39) [Luck value] 0.29
Zurn [win%] 0.0% (0/4) [Luck value] -0.25
Zynada [win%] 16.1% (5/31) [Luck value] 0.62
I'm happy with these results, so I'm posting it all without filtering names. I'll give an explanation of the results.
Zorais [win%] (rank 19) 18.3% (74/405) [Luck value] (rank 105) -5.16
I had 74 wins, and 405 total counted rolls which gave me a win percentage of 18.3%. When my odds for each roll are tallied, I have bad luck with negative 5.16.
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zorais
- Posts: 89
- Joined: Wed Sep 30, 2009 2:47 pm
- Location: oregon
Re: Hot Dice!
I made a graph of Luck value over time for Sanelyene, Me, Yllaena, Sollas, and Anas. There is an element in the graph worth noting. Wins look like sharp upward peaks. Loses look like soft downward slopes. A win with big odds is a big upwards peak. A lose with big odds will be a very soft downward slope, and a small odds lose is a sharp downward slope. (1/30 lose is a small negative effect, 1/2 lose is a big negative effect)
Leave a post here asking to have a graph made for your luck value if you want one (It's easy for me). If I get a few request I'll make one
Leave a post here asking to have a graph made for your luck value if you want one (It's easy for me). If I get a few request I'll make one
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zorais
- Posts: 89
- Joined: Wed Sep 30, 2009 2:47 pm
- Location: oregon
Re: Hot Dice!
The 108 ranked raiders are alphabatized on these graphs. The range of Luck value anyone can lose on a single roll is ( 0.5 <> 0.01 ), and the range of Luck value they can gain is ( 0.99 <> 0.5 )
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Zephur
- Site Admin
- Posts: 449
- Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2004 7:02 pm
Re: Hot Dice!
So my luck is negative and thus i'm due for a win?
[125 Deathcaller] Zephur - Gnome Necromancer
350 Baking / Brewing / Fletching / Jewelry / Pottery / Tailoring / Tinkering
325+ Research / Smithing
350 Baking / Brewing / Fletching / Jewelry / Pottery / Tailoring / Tinkering
325+ Research / Smithing
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zorais
- Posts: 89
- Joined: Wed Sep 30, 2009 2:47 pm
- Location: oregon
Re: Hot Dice!
It means you currently win less than you are supposed to based on the odds. If you want a meaning, I'll say it suggest you will probably lose =p
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Calebe
- Posts: 221
- Joined: Fri Jun 13, 2003 3:06 am
- Location: East Berlin Pa
Re: Hot Dice!
Now people will see when I want something I bid till I don't have to roll:
18 wins out of 193 rolls. Rank 89. Thanks Zor it confirms that I thought for a long time:
MAGE looking to buy new and improved dice.
Calebe
Calebe [win%] (rank 101) 9.3% (18/193) [Luck value] (rank 89) -3.57
18 wins out of 193 rolls. Rank 89. Thanks Zor it confirms that I thought for a long time:
MAGE looking to buy new and improved dice.
Calebe
Level 100 Magician
Infinit
E'CI (Tunare) Server
Infinit
E'CI (Tunare) Server
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Eagles
- Posts: 254
- Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2005 6:36 am
Re: Hot Dice!
See Varlon I told you my rolls were worse then yours.... YOu really waisted over 700 points on the hth from badger badger badger 
Eagles [win%] (rank 71) 12.7% (17/134) [Luck value] (rank 83) -2.68
Varlon [win%] (rank 13) 19.0% (8/42) [Luck value] (rank 66) -0.85
Eagles [win%] (rank 71) 12.7% (17/134) [Luck value] (rank 83) -2.68
Varlon [win%] (rank 13) 19.0% (8/42) [Luck value] (rank 66) -0.85
Your Kinder Gentler Iksar,
Eagles
Eagles
-
Eagles
- Posts: 254
- Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2005 6:36 am
Re: Hot Dice!
Calebe wrote:Now people will see when I want something I bid till I don't have to roll:Calebe [win%] (rank 101) 9.3% (18/193) [Luck value] (rank 89) -3.57
18 wins out of 193 rolls. Rank 89. Thanks Zor it confirms that I thought for a long time:
MAGE looking to buy new and improved dice.
Calebe
At least you are not Anzen or Babsy...
Anzen [win%] (rank 82) 11.9% (24/202) [Luck value] (rank 101) -4.82
Babsy [win%] (rank 106) 6.2% (9/146) [Luck value] (rank 99) -4.51
Your Kinder Gentler Iksar,
Eagles
Eagles
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zorais
- Posts: 89
- Joined: Wed Sep 30, 2009 2:47 pm
- Location: oregon
Re: Hot Dice!
Calebe,
I'll pay you 200p to take my dice:
Zorais [win%] (rank 19) 18.3% (74/405) [Luck value] (rank 105) -5.16
Deal? I'll even take yours at no charge!
I'll pay you 200p to take my dice:
Zorais [win%] (rank 19) 18.3% (74/405) [Luck value] (rank 105) -5.16
Deal? I'll even take yours at no charge!